2016beta Emissions Review

LADCO Internal Review of 2016beta Emissions

Objective

Collaborative review of the 2016 beta emissions platform to identify issues with the base and future year inventories and emissions data.

Resources

LADCO Image Viewer for the 2016beta Emissions

Intermountain West Data Warehouse 2016beta Platform Web Analysis

Approach

  1. Review LADCO region emissions by pollutant
  2. Review LADCO state emissions by pollutant
  3. Review LADCO county emissions by pollutant
  4. Review projection approaches and control information for EGUs, non-EGU point, onroad mobile, and nonroad mobile

Call Notes

May 29, 2019

Presentation slides

Notes

Graphics and Data Resources

Issues

  • IL nonpoint oil and gas: increase in 2016 relative to 2011; many low volume wells, EPA assumed 5000+ hours/year, in reality operating 200-300 hours/year; EPA suggested that we comment on the number of hours/year operating for these wells; IL got an active wells count from DNR which is lower than the EPA estimate, and provided these to EPA; working with operators on the number of hours these wells operate; while these wells may be running, they’re likely pumping water and not oil/gas; looking to get feedback from the operators by Friday; may fallback to PA default of 250 hours for low volume wells
  • Ag VOC: pesticide use in June is a high VOC signal in southern MN, N. OH; likely the right temporal profile; also high in August and that’s likely not correct; need to check VOC profile
  • Nonroad VOC: August gridded plot showing a lot of VOC on the waterways, likely rec marine; big numbers in the 2011 rec marine inventory, rivaling onroad VOC on the weekends; December is probably snowmobiles in the LADCO region, why the gradient between east and west
  • Nonroad NOx: signal in urban areas from construction and snowblowers, July emissions are more spread through the LADCO states from ag; checking 2004/05 report from Pechan shows that the ag equipment should be more active in May, June, Oct, and Nov in the LADCO region not in June-Aug as suggested by the EPA profiles
  • EPA NONROAD temporal profiles: EPA received data from LADCO for 2005 and 2008 NEI, was included through 2011 and 2014; removed all old state data that had been submitted for the 2017 NEI, and this impacted the 2016 inventories; new version of NONROAD; need to dig into the NONROAD monthly profiles used for the 2017 NEI and get these by SCC; need to get information out of Pechan report to EPA, fuel consumption to populations, and temporal profiles;
  • IA encourages LADCO to submit data on their behalf; EPA will need a note from the states to confirm to use what LADCO submits
  • CMV_C1C2: check split between lakes and rivers for monthly temporal profiles
  • MN Emissions Analysis
    • Reviewed stacked bars
    • Seeing SO2 changes in EGU projections related to EPA IPM model; EPA reran IPM and may address this issue: why is SO2 increasing in 2028 from 2023
    • Concerned about NH3 (NO3) projections for regional haze, critical for RRF calculations; want to be confident with base and future year NH3; EPA is redoing NH3 with new a CMAQ model run that may decrease NH3 in the next run; is 2016 really that much lower than 2011? How did EPA do the projections? viewv
    • Dust:
    • Need to provide updated spec sheets with projection information to the states

May 8, 2019

Attendees

Andrew Russo (IL), Azra Kovacevic (MN), Buzz Asselmeier, Chris Bovee (WI), Hassan Bouchareb (MN), Jeff Sprague (IL), John Welch (IN), Jon Loftus (WI), Nishanthi Wijekoon (WI), Rebekah Banas (MI), Stacy Allen (MO), Steve Lachance (MI), Tom Shanley (MI), William Kenny (OH), Kari Palmer (MN), Dennis McGeen (MI), Margaret McCourtney

Notes

Introduction

  • Mark showing slides (link) on the introduction to this workgroup
  • Seeking feedback from states on issues that they may see in the inventories/emissions data
  • LADCO collecting feed back and will send to EPA
  • Schedule: LADCO will be hold calls weekly until the review deadline
  • LADCO looking for information from states on DERA and VW
  • Need to compile a comprehensive list of diesel emissions reduction projects (DERA and local projects) implemented over the last 10 years; also what’s planned
  • Through ERTAC using on-the-books controls, need to review to make sure that this is correct; may also need to look at potential controls that could be used for emissions control strategies
  • Need to be ready for potential project team requests this fall about where there may be additional controls available for ozone reduction strategies

Data Review

  • IL Oil and Gas: VOC increase in nonpoint O&G from 2011 to 2016 in SE IL
  • NH3: IL trend different from the rest of the region (reduction from 14->16); why is WI showing the biggest drop in the region (most of the region is seeing a 25-30% decrease from 11->16, WI is having ~50% drop)
  • NOx: Why CMV_C1C2 increases in 2016 relative to 2011?; why do OH and MI show a bigger reduction in onroad NOx from 2011 to 2016 relative to the other LADCO states; check MI and WI nonroad reductions, seem to be larger than for the rest of the region;